Industry new
In recent years, the heavy truck market will reduce the price and increase the price?
In 2016, and even for a longer period of time, the overall sales of heavy vehicles in my country will continue to decline, but the overall value will continue to rise. "A few days ago, at the 2015 International Forum for Heavy Commercial Vehicles hosted by China Automotive News, economic experts, truck manufacturers, and parts manufacturers unanimously expressed this view.
The decline of my country's heavy truck market in 2015 is a foregone conclusion, and the heavy truck market in 2016 still has no basis for recovery. It can be seen that the life of heavy truck companies will not be easy next year.
The national economic trend is sensitive to the nerves of the commercial vehicle market. At present, the necessary conditions affecting the recovery of the commercial vehicle market-GDP is unlikely to increase. "The commercial vehicle market has a high degree of correlation with GDP and the same trend as GDP. Therefore, the deceleration of China's economic development in the future will inevitably affect the demand for heavy trucks and slow down accordingly." Director and Senior Economist, Information Resources Department, National Information Center Xu Changming proved this argument with a series of numbers. He pointed out that with the transformation and upgrading of China's economy and changes in industrial structure, people's consumption gradually changed from material consumption to service consumption. When most people buy houses and cars, consumption of services such as medical care, education, and tourism will increase, and the increase in the output value of the service industry in GDP will bring about a reduction in the intensity of transportation, and thus the number of heavy trucks.
The judgment he gave was, "In the future, market forces will become stronger and stronger, and a market-oriented future will mean an increase in efficiency." Continuing Xu Changming's judgment, for the express logistics that has risen rapidly in the past two years, it is competing for this market The biggest weapon is efficiency. High-efficiency transportation requires high-quality trucks, not a larger number of trucks.
"In fact, the consolidation of the transportation industry has just begun. In the next 10 years, the total number of Chinese logistics and transportation companies will be reduced from more than 760,000 to 70,000." Mats Harborn, executive director of Scania China Strategic Center There is a clear prediction of the heavy truck user group.
At present, China has born many companies operating in a corporate manner like Debon. The trunk lines of more than 1,000 kilometers are transported by the drop-and-hook method. These heavy vehicles are basically mainly imported brands such as Volvo, Mercedes-Benz and Scania, because these routes require the engine to run for a long time without failure.
Xu Changming concluded that there will be several major trends for heavy trucks in the future: First, the market growth rate is relatively low, and it is almost impossible to return to the previous high growth state. Second, product technology upgrades will accelerate. Through statistics of the past six years, it has been found that the higher the price, the faster the growth rate.
Mike Harman, vice president of global sales at Kangmai, believes that China’s logistics are now facing changes similar to those in the United States in the past 15-20 years, such as rapid urbanization, and government policies to promote and pay more attention to the consumer economy. These Factors will change China's shipping methods. In the future, trucks will have more long-distance transportation and higher speeds, which will bring new challenges to the quality of trucks. High horsepower, higher fuel economy and more reliable parts, and lower costs have become factors that customers are more concerned about. In short, the ultimate goal is to reduce truck downtime and maximize equipment utilization.
"In the future, the transportation efficiency, fuel efficiency, and economic efficiency of heavy trucks must be improved to meet new customer needs." He Mochi (Mats Harborn) agreed with the consensus reached by people in this industry. He further explained that the operating costs of heavy trucks now include fuel, road and bridge fees, driver salaries, and equipment depreciation. If the upgrading of vehicle products can reduce these costs, it will not only save energy and reduce consumption, but also increase manufacturing value.
He Mochi predicts, "In the future, China's low-end heavy truck market will disappear. Once China fully implements the National VI emission standards, the entire market will be high-end. If China waits for China VI to implement, China will become a high-end truck market. This This means that local truck sales prices will be much higher than today."
For China's heavy-duty vehicles, facing the challenge of reducing exhaust emissions and fuel consumption challenges at the same time, Navistar China/Asia General Manager Wu Zhijun believes that vehicle interconnection is the future development direction of heavy-duty vehicles, because it provides convenience for fleet management and operation while being able to Improve the overall fuel economy of the industry. Wu Zhijun said that the market for long-head trucks in China will depend on regulations and whether relevant departments can give customers a choice, but after the policy is liberalized, long-head trucks and flat-head trucks will coexist.
In addition, in addition to the general trend of declining demand and rising value in my country's heavy truck market, Xu Changming also gave hope. He said: "In the future, after my country's economic structure is adjusted to a certain level, heavy trucks will still have a process of recovery."
Recently, the 2015 International Forum on Heavy Commercial Vehicles was held in Beijing. The theme of this forum is "High Emission Standards and Prospects of Heavy Vehicle Market under User's Demand", and explore the opportunities and challenges in the future heavy vehicle market in the form of panel discussions. Nearly 80 enterprise leaders, industry experts and leaders from heavy-duty vehicle OEMs, component suppliers and industry analysis and consulting organizations came to the scene to provide their own insights on the future development and challenges of China's heavy-duty vehicle field.
